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The Sting in the Tail : Damaging Winds from European cyclones – University of Reading

Strong winds during severe storms cause over one billion Euros of damage in Europe in an average year. By piecing together events during European cyclones, including the Great Storm that swept over southeast England in October 1987, meteorologists who will be exhibiting at the Royal Society's Summer Science Exhibition have found that the most damaging winds are concentrated in a small region known as a Sting Jet. Armed with an understanding of this new weather phenomenon, forecasters are now better able to predict where the worst winds will strike, hopefully reducing loss of life. Extra-tropical cyclones lash Europe in winter with surface winds that can gust at 80-100 mph. But predicting the strong winds associated with these storms is difficult, as weather forecasters famously found out during the Great Storm of October 1987. Even within 2 hours of two massively damaging French storms in Christmas 1999, forecasts were underestimating wind speeds by 25% - equivalent to a 6 to 8-fold underestimate of the amount of damage that they caused. To understand the conditions that lead to such strong winds, Professor Keith Browning of the University of Reading and his colleagues have carried out a detailed analysis of the Great Storm of October 1987. Looking at satellite images of clouds and surface weather observations, the researchers have pieced together in some detail the conditions that lead to the strongest surface winds. A stream of strong winds descends to the ground where there is evaporation at the tip of a tell-tale cloud feature. This cloud, hooked like a scorpion’s tail, gives the wind region its name - the Sting Jet. The researchers tested their ideas in a new high-resolution numerical weather forecasting model developed by the Met Office, which was able to recreate the Sting Jet effect. Knowing how the Sting Jet behaves should allow forecasters to look at satellite images of storms and predict where the worst winds will fall within a few hours time. Eventually they should also be able to incorporate the understanding of this phenomenon into improved designs of the new generation computer forecast models. You can find out more about this exhibit at: www.sc1.ac.uk/discover/2003ex19.cfm Executive Secretary of the Royal Society, Stephen Cox said: "This event grows in popularity each year with thousands attending over the three days. It is the perfect opportunity for members of the public to meet and chat with scientists about their fascinating science on an informal one-to-one basis. The proposal from the University beat off stiff competition to become one of this year’s exhibits and we look forward to seeing their outstanding work on display at the Royal Society this summer." The Summer Science Exhibition takes place from 1-3 July 2003, at the Royal Society, 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG. For more information, visit www.royalsoc.ac.uk or www.sc1.ac.uk Carol Derham or Sue Rayner, Communications & External Relations Office, University of Reading 0118 378 8004/5. NOTES FOR EDITORS 1. The Royal Society is an independent academy promoting the natural and applied sciences. Founded in 1660, the Society has three roles, as the UK academy of science, as a learned Society and as a funding agency. It responds to individual demand with selection by merit not by field. The Society’s aims are to: • strengthen UK science by providing support to excellent individuals • fund excellent research to push back the frontiers of knowledge • attract and retain the best scientists • ensure the UK engages with the best science around the world • support science communication and education; and communicate and encourage dialogue with the public • provide the best independent advice nationally and internationally • promote scholarship and encourage research into the history of science -ENDS-