New research shows warmer climates lead to more extreme rainfall – University of Reading
08 August 2008Audio interview with Dr Richard Allan, Environmental Systems Science Centre (MP3 - 2.8MB)
New research from the University of Reading published in this week's journal of Science provides the first observational evidence of satellite data to confirm the link between a warmer climate and more intense tropical rainstorms. Climate models have long predicted that global warming will increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events. Importantly, in this research, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than predicted previously, implying that projections of future changes in rainfall extremes may have been underestimated.
Dr Richard Allan of the University of Reading and Dr Brian J. Soden from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science used naturally-driven changes in climate associated with El Niño to investigate how precipitation responds to a warmer climate. The research found that both satellite observations and models indicated an increase in heavy rainstorms in response to a warmer climate. However, the observed amplification of rainfall extremes was found to be substantially larger in the observations than predicted by climate prediction models.
Dr Richard Allan said: "Comparing observations with results from computer models improves our understanding of how rainfall responds to a warming world. Differences can relate to deficiencies in the measurements, or the models used to predict future climatic change. This research is based on 20 years of satellite observations, and we found a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature. This means that heavy rain events are likely to increase during warm periods and decrease during cold periods.
"One of the most serious challenges that humanity will face in response to climate change is adapting to changes in extreme weather events. There is a major concern that heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense in a warmer climate. Floods can completely devastate areas and people's livelihoods and so this knowledge could have massive implications on how we plan for our changing climate in the future."
Dr. Brian J. Soden, associate professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, said: "A surprising result is that the models appear to underestimate the increase in intensity of the heaviest rain events to warming. This suggests that model projections of future changes in rainfall extremes due to human-caused global warming may also be underestimated."
ENDS
Further information from Dr Lucy Chappell, University of Reading Communications Office, on 0118 378 7391
Notes to editors:
This research is published in the journal Science Express on 7/08/08 titled "Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes".
Dr Richard Allan is a NERC Advanced Fellow at the ESSC (Environmental Systems Science Centre) at the University of Reading which forms an integral part of NERC's (National Environment Research Council) National Centre for Earth Observation.
The ESSC is affiliated with the Walker Institute for Climate System Research. The Walker Institute for Climate System Research brings together the unrivalled breadth and depth of climate expertise that exists within the University of Reading.
The University of Reading is ranked as one of the UK's top research-intensive universities. The quality and diversity of the University's research and teaching is recognised internationally as one of the top 200 universities in the world. The University is home to more than 50 research centres, many of which are recognised as international centres of excellence such as agriculture, biological and physical sciences, European histories and cultures, and meteorology.
The most recent Research Assessment Exercise confirms our strengths, with 20 departments being awarded top ratings of 5 or above. Of these, Archaeology, English, Italian, Meteorology and Psychology each received a 5** rating in recognition of their high quality sustained over more than a decade. The University takes a real-world perspective to its research and is consistently one of the most popular higher education choices in the UK.