Reading researcher predicts Russian victory in Song Contest – University of Reading
20 May 2008A sound performance by the Russian entry should be enough to give them victory in this weekend's Eurovision Song Contest, according to a new study led by Dr Alan Howard from the University of Reading's Department of Geography.
Using 'Eurovisionomics' analysis, or the 'Wogan Index', the research looked at voting patterns since 2001, to identify those countries that are 'over-valued' in terms of votes received, compared to the Song Contest average when taking into account natural divergence (standard deviation).
The study showed Russia are most in harmony with their neighbours, with Belarus, Cyprus, Estonia, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, and Ukraine awarding them an unusually high mark in at least four of the last six contests, totalling 33 higher than expected showing clear evidence of 'bloc' voting.
Dr Howard said: "Clearly, every year, some countries will award high or low scores compared to the majority. However our study only looks at those cases where countries have received unusual scores in more than 50% of the last six contests from another voting competitor. Such a voting pattern is highly unlikely to occur by chance, and it's likely that factors other than the quality of the song are involved."
Other findings of note include Bosnia & Herzegovina receiving significant benefit from Austria, Croatia, Slovenia, Sweden and Turkey, with even the UK appearing to gain from friendly voting alliances with Ireland and Malta. Turkey seem to fall victim of foul play however, with 14 countries since 2001 having awarded them peculiarly low scores in at least four contests.
Dr Howard's research uses the same ideas as The Big Mac Index, also called Burgernomics, which the Economist newspaper devised in 1986 as an informal way of measuring the purchasing power parity between two currencies.
"We apply Burgernomics to Eurovision, comparing actual voting between countries, above or below the average in a given year," said Dr Howard. "This may indicate which countries are routinely benefiting or losing out due to 'bloc-voting' or other neighbourly or political biases. Undoubtedly some countries have been 'over-valued' since 2001 and a small number 'under-valued'."
This latest research backs-up Dr Howard's survey of over 1000 Eurovision fans conducted last year, which found that when it comes to casting our vote, we are more concerned about performance, lyrics and hit potential than tactical plots to help or hinder friends and foes.
Dr Howard added: "What is clear from our findings is that neighbourly or 'bloc voting' is not enough to determine the contest winner. Only Greece from the top-five 'over valued' countries has won the contest since 2001. In fact the neutral (zero rated) countries may have the telling say in who wins Eurovision. Whichever 'over valued' nation that comes top amongst the neutrals is likely to be crowned winners in Belgrade on Saturday. Of the newcomers to the contest, Armenia with two past appearances and recipients of friendly votes both times is definitely one to watch this year."
For a complete list of results with please visit www.songcontestvoting.com.
Ends
For media enquiries only, please contact James Barr, the University's Press Officer on: 0118 378 7115 or by email j.w.barr@reading.ac.uk