Comment: Storm experts from the Department of Meteorology discuss Hurrican Joachin's projected course
Release Date 02 October 2015
Dr Andrew Barrett and Dr Chris Holloway discuss Hurricane Joachin's strength, change of course and its new likely path.
"El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean have contributed to a quiet Atlantic hurricane season so far. However, Hurricane Joaquin is making some serious noise - it's currently a severe category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph. It is moving northwest through the Bahamas at a very slow rate. This is likely to be exacerbating heavy wind damage throughout the islands.
"Just a few days ago Joaquin looked as though it would hit the east coast of America. Latest models however, suggest that Joachin will not make landfall in the US but 'recurve' north and northeast away from the Bahamas in the next 24 hours.
"This forecast change is not uncommon. Predicting the track of slow moving storms is more difficult because the mid-to upper-level winds, known as steering winds, are weak - exaggerating any positioning errors of forecast models."
"While a few global models continue to forecast Joachin hitting the US, most of the reliable ones now predict that the storm will stay far enough offshore to prevent landfall there. So there is good news for the US - but unfortunately that's not the full story.
"A strong pressure gradient between Joaquin and another low pressure area to the south, and a large high pressure system to the north, means there will still be sustained onshore winds over parts of the US East coast for several days. This will bring heavy rain as well as a potential build-up of water and high surf which could lead to coastal and river flooding, and possibly a moderate storm surge.
"There is the potential for Joaquin to become a strong extratropical storm in the North Atlantic over the coming week. However, it is too soon to say whether this will significantly impact on the UK."